I am of the belief that Hiftar is not the most powerful player in the anti-Islamist coalition and that the Saiqa and the Zintanis are militarily more important, however politically it can't be denied that he is emerging as a power player, stakeholder, and deal maker. Now is the time for him to make a deal with his enemies and preserve the peace in Libya. Ian Black of the Guardian consulted me in a crafting an article which puts forth a useful overview of the situation. To read it you may click here. I disagree with George Joffe's pronouncement that things may disintegrate into Civil War. I don't see that as on the cards for Libya.
In less then a week key army units, political parties and tribal forces have rallied under [Hiftar's] banner. On Thursday tension mounted when a powerful brigade from Misrata [opposed to Hiftar] deployed in the centre of the capital. The renegade general's moves are being closely watched both at home and abroad.Heftar's old links with the CIA have come back to haunt him – with enemies denouncing him as an American "agent". In Libya's charged political mood, the accusation is toxic but it may be misleading or simply old news. For the record the US has denied backing him; he has also denied being in contact with Washington. Several former senior US intelligence officials told the Guardian that, while they did not have direct knowledge, they did not believe the US was backing Heftar. Instead, they say, his current offensive should be seen as an audition for future US backing. By showing that he can take on the Islamist militias and win, he establishes himself as somebody the west cannot ignore.In February Heftar put his head above the parapet with a televised speech denouncing the government and announcing its overthrow. The dramatic appeal failed to spark an uprising but it marked Heftar out as the figurehead for opposition.Critics compare him to Egypt's army commander Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi, who overthrew the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood president Mohamed Morsi last July and is now poised to be elected president. Heftar, like Sisi, is said to have the enthusiastic backing of the fiercely anti-Islamist United Arab Emirates, as does his ally, the former prime minister Mahmoud Jibril. Heftar even created a Supreme Council of the Armed Forces – the same name used by the Egyptian military.But direct comparisons are not helpful. Libya's armed forces are nothing like as strong as their mighty Egyptian counterparts. "No one is fooled when Heftar says he is leading the national army," said Jason Pack of Libya-analysis.com. "That's just another militia."Heftar's momentum could change that. His Operation Karama ("dignity") has blazed across Libya with army units, tribes and the largest non-Islamist party, the National Forces Alliance, all declaring their allegiance. But victory is far from certain – and the risks are considerable."Heftar's initiative is responding to a deeply felt need," said Libya expert George Joffe. "Even if he is not the man of the moment he might appeal to a popular mood that will allow him to carry on. The danger is that it will collapse into civil war."