On 15 November, Atlantic Council published an article by their Nonresident Senior Fellow Emadeddin Badi entitled ‘A moment of opportunity: Can the UN’s new special representative for Libya break the country’s cycle of devolution?’. Badi looks at Abdoulaye Bathily’s first two months as Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) for Libya and head of the UN Support Mission to Libya (UNSMIL) and gives recommendations based on previous attempts to stabilise Libya for how Bathily can help steer away from conflict. Badi argues that while Libya’s civil war officially ended with a ceasefire, it never abated but rather became ‘fought by other means in the halls of the UN and corridors of foreign capitals’. Badi asserts that the UN’s actions in Libya have been marred by ‘differing dynamics and leadership styles’. He explains that the UN first focused on getting Libya on an electoral path which, but after December 2021 they switched to a focus on constitutional amendments between the separate legislative chambers of the High State Council (HSC) and House of Representatives (HoR). Badi argues that Bathily will need to contend with Libyan elites and political stakeholders who do not wish to give up the power they have derived from instability and learn from the UN’s previous mistakes in empowering said stakeholders without clear resolve on a path forward. Badi says Bathily should minimise the agency of these political elites and not ‘[fall] prey to the allure of chasing the chimera of an HSC-HoR agreement’ and work to reduce their monopoly on decision-making. Badi sees a moment of opportunity with Bathily, with 2.8 million people having signed up for elections in 2021 justifying a need to forge ahead with a solution.
Read the full article here.