On 1 February, Atlantic Council published an article by Nonresident Senior Fellow Alia Brahimi entitled ‘Libya’s political impasse and the $6 billion question’. Brahimi asserts that there is no clear road out of Libya’s present political impasse, arguing that the present political elite have failed to unite Libya or drum up support for state institutions. Brahimi argues that the political elite - i.e. the Speaker of the House of Representatives (HoR), Aqeela Saleh, and the head of the High State Council (HSC), Khaled Mishri - intend to prevent fresh elections in order to retain their positions of power. Brahimi argues that these elites are vested in the status quo and have been working to eclipse UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) Abdoulaye Bathily’s efforts towards a Libyan-led roadmap for elections. Brahimi notes that tensions between rival Libyan political groups, namely the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Government of National Stability (GNS), have shown signs of thawing. However, she links this to political elites seeking to safeguard their positions rather than working towards electoral progress that could see the existing political bodies disbanded. According to Brahimi, regional patrons like Egypt and Turkey are supporting this obstructionism that they see as serving their own political interests.
Despite the impasse, Brahimi notes that there is a new talking point that could serve to unsettle the current political stagnation. Brahimi says the Central Bank of Libya’s (CBL) recently published spending figures showed that 34.3 billion dinars ($6 billion) was released to the NOC after their leadership changed, though ‘it is unclear that this money was used to fund the oil sector, in which there was very little movement in 2022’. Brahimi says alarm over these figures is growing, compounded with rumours that the state funds were used to pay the Wagner Group. Brahimi concludes that as more reports of behind-the-scenes deals come to light, Libya’s political situation may start to move as politicians and people alike call for accountability and answers.
Read the full article here.