Election Day Guide

Middle East Eye -- an online news source -- has established itself as a dynamic and up-and-coming player in the English language in depth coverage of the Middle East.  There treatment is serious and their articles tend to rely on a lot of expert analysis and quotes.  Here is what they and I have to say about today's Libyan election.Most agree that uncertainty lies ahead, no matter which way the vote ends up swinging. “Even people on the ground have no idea what the results will be. There is not enough information,” says Jason Pack, researcher of Libyan history at Cambridge University and President of Libya-Analysis.com. “But it is likely to be a repeat of what we have seen - a large crop of independents with leanings toward the Brotherhood. However, it does appear that the groupings will be less Islamist-leaning because of the frustration of the Islamist takeover of the GNC.” But while it may be too early to give up hope that the election will prove to be a positive turning point, cracks have already appeared in Libya’s electoral fabric, and Libya continues to have a host of internal and external factors working against it. “The desire to not have political parties participate means that we are going to see a repeat of the deadlock at the GNC, which will mean it will be almost impossible to get a consensus, no matter who is going to be elected,” says Pack.“Haftar remains unpopular, but his enemies are even less popular,” says Pack. “Libyan politics at the moment are conceived as a zero sum game between two or three larger factions. Until those factions are ready to negotiate behind the scenes and come to a grand bargain, it is not possible for there to be any unifying figures.”However, if a grand bargain is somehow struck behind the scenes, the new House of Representatives may finally find itself empowered and acting at long last to reach into local communities and bring unity, explains Pack.  “If that miraculously happens, the elections will be a great success, and it won’t have mattered that turnout was low," he says. "If the body is empowered to act in a legitimate fashion, that will be amazing.”