Endorsement and cohesion in all the wrong places

Although the UN-facilitated process appeared to lurch forward this week, its seeming progress may paradoxically widen the rifts within the rival governments. In the HoR, a block 92-strong announced their endorsement of the GNA and the UN-mediated Libyan political agreement, subject to proposed amendments. However, the so-called Fazzan Initiative may skip over the House to the UN, paying for a way out of the current deadlock with what remains of dwindling unity. Anti-GNA members from both the GNC and HoR have already met in Tunisia without UN mediation to agree on common ground for a new Libyan-owned process. The stark internal divisions have implications that reach beyond the political process to the realm of security. And yet, the Libyan-Libyan process of GNA rejectors might be the only way forward.Division and chaos could play into IS’s hands at this critical moment. Not only is IS continuing its campaign of assassinations in Ajdabiya and holding territory overlooking the east coast and port of Derna, but reports indicate that it may be considering a shift in strategy, focusing even more attention and resources from the Levant on Sirte as a possible future capital for the organization world wide. Others suggest that IS is moving heavy artillery and weapons to new positions in preparation for attacks on the Oil Crescent and a more active operation in the city of Ajdabiya. Regardless of its next move, it now seems that while hostilities do exist between IS and various local Islamist militias including Ansar Al Sharia (especially in Derna), they may be trumped by alliances of necessity against their common enemy: Haftar, unless a Libyan wide political process can undercut that logic.