On 21 October, the International Crisis Group’s (ICG) podcast Hold Your Fire covered Libya’s political crisis. The episode assessed how and whether the new Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Libya and Head of the United Nations Support Mission Libya (UNSMIL), Abdoulaye Bathily, can help Libya overcome its political impasse. The podcast, hosted by ICG’s Executive Vice President, Richard Atwood, features an interview with ICG’s Consulting Senior Analyst on Libya, Claudia Gazzini. Atwood outlined the situation Bathily is walking into, explaining the political stalemate between the rival Government of National Unity (GNU), led by Prime Minister Abdul Hameed Dabaiba, and the Government of National Stability (GNS), led by Prime Minister Fathi Bashaagha. Atwood touched on the recent Memorandum of Understandings (MoUs) signed between Turkey and the GNU, which has angered Egypt and further contributed to growing international tensions over how to handle Libya’s political crisis. Gazzini and Atwood then discussed how Bathily will handle the current political deadlock and increasing tensions over fractured finances, governments, militaries, and international stakeholders. Gazzini asserted that as Libya’s political factions are divided on how to move forward, Bathily’s role will be very challenging as there is no obvious route for him to support. In terms of international stakeholders, Gazzini said it will be challenging for Bathily to push for a solution that appeases all involved given that nations like Turkey and Russia have rallied behind different governments. However, Gazzini argued that there is hope for Bathily to exercise influence and get international stakeholders relatively aligned. She attested his mandate from the UN is widely respected, and his support from the African Union (AU) also carries weight. Ultimately, Gazzini did foresee a political compromise would be easily implemented as neither the GNU nor the GNS seem likely to relinquish power, and she has concerns about what a worsening external geopolitical situation (namely further Russian aggression) would mean for Libya’s peace. However, she concluded that Libya does not appear to be drifting towards another civil war and has hopes that Bathily will work to preserve this fragile peace, though finding solutions will be harder.
Listen to the full episode here.