Given the momentous events of Oct 20, 2015, and their historical resonances, I was invited to write a quick op-edfor the print and online edition of El Pais to sketch some possible trajectories for the country if a Government of National Accord materializes, if it doesn't, if Hafter makes a powerplay, if he is sidelines, etc.... These are difficult imponderables but things that must be contemplated at this juncture which is filled with many possibilities. Most of them quite frighting indeed. So thanks to Andrea Rizzi for coming up with such a catchy title: Libia, un precipicio aterrador. You can read the Spanish by clicking on this link. Below is my original English.
For over four years, Libya has lacked a government which can control its territory. For over a year, the country has been divided between two competing governments, each aligned to partisan militias. As of today (Oct 20), neither of those governments can claim legal legitimacy – making Libya the largest piece of terra nullius, or vacuum of sovereignty on earth.We have arrived at this scary precipice and are forced to look down, because UN Special Envoy, Bernardino Leon was not given the tools by the international community to incentivize the various Libyan factions to make compromises and to accept the ministerial list of the Government of National Accord (GNA) which he announced ten days ago. From this point of total chaos, various possible scenarios abound. If the GNA comes into being and retains the divisive General Haftar as its commander, members of many of the Eastern tribes will be placated but Libya will likely fracture along East-West lines. On the other hand, if a GNA is formed and Haftar is marginalised by in an attempt for it to bridges various constituencies, violent destabilisation in both East and West are likely as Haftar may declare a military council and seek to take over the country by force. The Western region of Libya is likely to witness growing conflict whatever the outcome for the GNA, due to the breakdown of the local cease fires that had held previous there as various militias line up for and against the deal, and the tenuous political cohesion between Haftar’s command in the East and anti-GNC militias in the west.However, if no deal is signed and no skeleton GNA emerges which can conduct diplomacy and call for international help, the scenarios are all worse. A deal is needed to safeguard the legitimacy, sovereignty and international recognition for the national institutions of Libya. Without a deal, Libya will consists of more than seven main feuding militias controlling territory and fighting for key oil and transport infrastructure, while no parties should have the ability to legitimately conduct Libyan diplomacy abroad. This situation benefits the growth of the Islamic State, which is ruthlessly crushing its enemies and bragging about it on social media. After conducted two assassinations in Ajdabiya last week -- against a local Imam and military intelligence Colonel -- the group crucified an opponent and released gruesome videos showing the brutal killing of two jihadist captured in Derna on charge of belonging to a rival group and informing on IS.A deal is clearly needed to focus the country’s mainstream factions against the common threat of IS and to mitigate risks on the Libya’s key oil ports and facilities. In the prolonged absence of a deal, it is highly likely that local councils and the militias themselves may be the only viable channels for the international community to work with. This piece was published in El Pais (in Spanish).