Karim Mezran and I again ascend the bully pulpit, advocating again for increased Western engagement in Libya in an unfortunately titled article, Libyan Stability at Risk, in Foreign Policy's Middle East Channel. We all know that Libya has not been stable since 2010, but that the central government is truly on the verge of losing control of the transition process itself. Hence, we conclude, "It is no exaggeration to say that the internal political forces inside the country are balanced on a razor's edge. An unexpected gust of political violence could lead to anarchy; a helping hand providing a gentle push in the right direction could ease the transition toward democracy and stability."
For the international community the attack against the French Embassy and the radicalization of the conflict between militias and government institutions must serve as a wake-up call, and remind them that the gains of the NATO-led intervention are at risk of being undone. The countries that helped overthrow Qaddafi should redouble their efforts to support the creation of professional armed forces and police, vocational training, and constitution writing. If greater support is withheld, the French Embassy attack may prove to be the start of a trend, in which case Libyan -- and by extension North African -- instability would become a permanent status quo. The crisis in Mali and the growing instability in Algeria -- and most recently Tunisia -- offer clear evidence in support of this conjecture.It is against this inauspicious backdrop of a full-fledged "struggle for post-Qaddafi Libya" -- and not simply that of Mali backlash -- that last week's bombing, this week's militia occupations, and heated debates concerning the political isolation law must be understood.Worse yet, the country's fledgling national armed forces -- historically weak under Qaddafi and being largely built from the ground up -- have been subject to internal crises, only slowing their lackluster reconstruction. Most recently, officers from Eastern Libya demanded the removal of Chief of Staff Youssef Mangoush, citing his inability to restructure the armed forces and reinforce security. Moreover, the Southern Military Governor appointed to bring order to the country's lawless south, recently denounced the lack of resources at his disposal, publicly admitting the impossibility of his task. The Libyan military is, to put it mildly, ill prepared for its mission to defend the state and maintain order.