In an article for the Atlantic Council, I explain how the HoR's decision to extend its mandate makes it even less likely that a deal will be struck (as it saps any motivation the GNC might have had), and paradoxically more important that the hard deadline of October 20th is met, otherwise Libya's lack of sovereignty will become manifest for all to see and the country will be the largest piece of terra nullius on terra firma on the planet. Needless to say, that will not be good for Libya's inhabitants, for the world economy, for European security, or for neighboring countries. It will however be great news for drug and human smugglers, for jihadists, and for the various warlords that currently run the show on the ground in Libya. These types love operating in a vacuum of sovereignty and leadership. If international actors want to prevent things going from bad to worse to Syria style, it might be about time to throw down some meaningful threats and actions against the bad guys in Libya. Now is the time to say that come October 21st with no deal, that sanctions are gonna fly left and right and the bad guys are gonna lose money. This is the only thing that can motivate people.
With the power of both the HOR and the GNC clearly stagnating, the cohesiveness of both national level blocs has already started to fade as groups and militias progressively splinter away towards newer alliance structures. One such instance occurred last week when groups of fighters from Tobruk and Baida, two cities firmly affiliated with the Tobruk establishment, abandoned their commitments to Operation Dignity and joined the Derna Mujahiddeen Shura Council (DMSC) in its fight against Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) elements. The DMSC has long opposed the HOR, particularly its Commander of the Libyan Armed Forces General Khalifa Haftar rumored to be contemplating a government takeover should a political agreement fail to materialize.Given the above picture, clearly, the signing of a national deal and the establishment of a government of national accord would not be sufficient to solve all the intertwined issues hampering Libya’s post-revolutionary stabilization. Nonetheless, a national level deal pacifying the main forces inside the country, solidifying the crumbling blocs, and creating a new set of legitimate institutions still represents a much-needed first step. All international stakeholders should support a deal with their full strength by offering to punish those who block it. This fact must not be lost as mandates are extended and deadlines are missed.To read the full article click here.