On 8 July, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, reportedly said to Russia’s Interfax news outlet that it was working with Turkey on an immediate ceasefire agreement for the conflict in Libya. Lavrov added that the Libyan National Army (LNA) was ready to sign an agreement and he hoped that Turkey would manage to convince the Government of National Accord (GNA) to do the same. It has to be noted that Russia and Turkey – not the Libyans – are the currently the key actors facilitating and agreeing upon a ceasefire, a peace settlement and inadvertently the resumption of Libya’s oil flow. However, both countries are at an impasse that has culminated in a security dilemma centred on Sirte. On 13 July, at Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the coastal city of Sirte and al-Jufra airbase need to be turned over to the GNA before it agrees to a ceasefire. As such, it is unclear whether they will be able to agree on the terms for a ceasefire in the coming days or weeks – the longer a ceasefire is absent, the more likely it is that tensions will rise and the conflict will escalate around Sirte. In addition, even if an agreement is struck between Turkey and Russia, the Libyan forces (in particular the GNA forces) may not adhere to its terms.
