Jason Pack, the founder of Libya-Analysis, has published an article with Foreign Policy arguing that the West’s call for elections in the absence of stable institutions while simultaneously competing for diplomatic and comic influence won’t rebuild Libya — it will destroy it. To explore this Pack details French President Emmanuel Macron’s so-called “Paris summit” in May of this year and suggests:
Like those earlier and more autocratic contenders for dominance over the Libya file, France has sought influence not so much by supporting Haftar against his enemies, but by trying to blindside other international players with surprise summits and establishing facts on the ground. The unique French twist is attempting to unsubtly manipulate the elections timetable and optics to get a specific outcome.There is no doubt that Macron’s May 2018 Paris summit further legitimized Haftar and puts him in the pole position in terms of name recognition heading into any electoral battle. Understandably, this ruffled feathers in London, Washington, and Rome as France’s allies were not notified about the summit until it was publicly announced.
Pack goes on to further explore the relationship between internal Libyan politics and foreign influence in the country, and while things appear dire he argues there is still a way forward:
Now is the time to learn from past mistakes. Britain and the United States must not allow yet another Libyan election to be constructed as a winner-take-all event. Rather than engaging in cheap talk about democracy, veteran diplomats in Washington and London should attempt to enforce rules of the game as a corrective to the zero-sum mentality in Libya whereby winners try to marginalize the vanquished and control all the spoils.Issuing concrete pledges to protect Libya’s crucial physical infrastructure, namely the electricity, water, and oil grids as well as the few brave Libyan technocrats willing to implement painful economic reforms is long overdue.Without such a backstop, even the most courageous Libyan stakeholders will have difficulty safeguarding their country’s sovereign assets from predation. They know that if they stick their necks out to correct injustices, they will likely to be chopped off by the disgruntled militiamen who benefit from the corrupt status quo.
Click here to read the article in full.