Two deals, no solution

Unsurprisingly, the sudden homegrown initiative for reconciliation between the GNC and HoR has not calmed Libya’s turbulent political waters. In fact, as the UN appears to be proceeding full steam ahead with its proposed political agreement, tensions and divisions only seem to be escalating.Last week’s potentially welcome yet ultimately suspicious Libyan-Libyan agreement of principles, signed by hard-line representatives of both the HoR and GNC, did little to ease the UN’s political mission. In fact, GNC and HoR representatives supporting the GNA shunned the locally led deal, seeing it as a last ditch ploy by minority hardliners to de-rail the UN-mediated talks. They maintain that the UN agreement will be signed this Wednesday in Skhirat, and international bodies have chosen to interpret that a majority of both houses as indicating support for the deal.However, there is no clear majority in the HoR or GNC in favour of the UN-brokered accord, despite the flurry of media fanfare and political statements suggesting otherwise. Opposition is especially strong among both a large percentage of the population in Eastern Libya – especially in Benghazi – and hard-line Islamist and local GNC-affiliated militias, too. The HoR has not met quorum for voting sessions for several weeks. Rumours suggest that GNA proponents in the HoR are not attending sessions for fear of a majority rejection and that the widely acclaimed Fezzan initiative with a majority of 92 members is not able to mobilise more than 50 for an actual vote.Meanwhile, divisions and lacking legitimacy are stoking tensions, thereby exacerbating the security situation.  Clashes erupted in Tripoli, Zawiyya, and Sabratha, underscoring the increasing levels lawlessness and criminality. On-going battles in Benghazi between LNA forces and a coalition of extremist militias are causing dissatisfaction with Haftar and fragmentation in the HoR and eastern region in general. The Oil Crescent is split between proponents of Haftar’s imminent military campaign in Ajdabiyya and those who oppose it. Opposition includes both the PFG and the local council, which has established a joint force to protect the region, presumably with the intention of lying low to avoid IS attacks. IS, of course, has been capitalising on the instability, further entrenching itself in Sirte and continuing its engagement around Derna.Western capitals fear that unless Libya forms a united government on Wednesday, IS will strengthen its grip on even more coastal territory. However, there are even greater risks associated with rushing the process to anoint a national unity government without first consolidating domestic support or addressing urgent security concerns. Granting recognition to a government that has insufficient backing could condemn it to irrelevance or worse, instigating further dangerous divisions. The UN-brokered deal may be good for the international community but not necessarily inclusive enough to last beyond a signing ceremony.