Today the Arab Spring is 3 years old. Is the movement over? Is it still going on? Is the term 'Arab Spring' a legitimate/accurate one? I am actually of the belief that the Arab Spring is long over and with hindsight we now know that the term should only refer to the period of time from Dec 17th, 2010 until October 23rd, 2011. I.e. from when Mohammad Bou 'Azizi self immolated sparking the revolution in Tunisia until when Qadhafi was killed and the liberation was declared in Libya. Seen in this light the Arab Spring was a North Africa focused movements and events in Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen were offshoots, but never had a similar trajectory. The Arab Spring was about using new forms of mobilization and organization to express dissent which had boiled over after long years of stagnant authoritarianism which was not producing jobs or dignity and did not present Muslims with regimes they considered Islamically legitimate. The Arab Spring was ideal in the predominantly Sunni, religious, and highly politically engaged societies of North Africa. It has not fared so well in multi-sectarian (Syria/Bahrain) or non-Arab societies (copycat movements in Africa/Ukraine/elsewhere).I've been musing on these questions because I wrote a retrospective of the Arab Spring for the L.A. Times addressing how the failures to 'transition to democracy' in Iraq, Egypt, and Libya have served as excellent warnings to Tunisians of what not to do. Moreover, looking back at the fall out from the Arab Spring movements, it does appear that only Tunisia has a real chance IN THE SHORT TERM to create a society governed by the rule of law, a constitution, and functioning accountable institutions. Read the whole article by clicking here or some highlights below.
Tunisia's stalled transition remains the last, best prospect for a democratic blossoming from the Arab Spring. Hope lives on because Tunisia has learned from the other derailed democratic experiments in the region, notably in Iraq, Egypt and Libya....First, learning from mistakes in Iraq and Libya, Tunisian politics are becoming more inclusive, in spite of initial echoes of de-Baathification. Although Ben Ali's political party was formally disbanded in 2011, the ruling Islamist Nahda movement has shelved a proposed controversial "immunization of the revolution" law, a virtual carbon copy of Libya's Political Isolation Law.... Third, unlike in Egypt and Libya, Tunisia's ruling elites having been working toward coalition governance.... Finally, on Saturday, a way to implement this pledge was devised by appointing Mehdi Jomaa, a consensus candidate and the current minister of industry, as the caretaker prime minister.....So far, however, three years after starting the Arab Spring, Tunisia has learned three valuable lessons from Iraq, Egypt and Libya:Don't disband your military or let it act as a state within a state, but do make it powerful enough to provide security. Seek consensus and compromise whenever possible. Include experienced and noncorrupt members of the former regime, or you'll risk throwing the democratic baby out with the dictatorial Baath water.