The past week saw very limited developments in Libya at the political level, mostly due to the end of Ramadan and the much-awaited Eid celebrations that brought life to a halt throughout the Muslim world. Bernardino Leon briefed on Wednesday 15 July the UN Security Council, delivering what has been seen as a very optimistic speech concerning Libya’s imminent future. Leon made an effort to employ a positive attitude towards the GNC, lauding the institution’s hard work towards the finalizing of the deal then signed by several Libyan factions. Leon invited once again the GNC to join the UN-backed process in time for negotiations around the content of the actual annexes that will define the composition of the new government and High State Council.
Despite Leon’s optimism, however, doubts remain as to how, if at all, effective the deal just signed will be. In fact, the GNC will most likely not make any step towards re-joining the peace process. No incentives for doing so have so far been offered to the institution, whose majority remains opposed to a deal, and no real pressure has been exerted on it either, neither by the international community at large, nor by states seen as supportive of Libya Dawn, such as Turkey and Qatar. As a result, it is more likely that the GNC and the militias supporting its hardline positions will resume fighting throughout western Libya, trying to act as spoilers of the deal, rather than try to join discussions around new institutions. Salah Badi and other Libya Dawn commanders have in fact already made clear that Tripoli would not be abandoned without a fight, furthermore, the resumption of fighting in the capital city could very well have a domino effect, causing a number of shaky peace deals recently finalised throughout western Libya to collapse.
Unfortunately, the GNC and its hardline militias do not represent the only concern for Libya going forward. In eastern Libya, Haftar and his supporters have similarly stated that the LNA should be considered untouchable and that any deal attempting to restructuring it would be considered void and actively opposed by LNA members. Clearly, Haftar fears that if his fate is going to be decided by a new, widely inclusive government, the end of his military and political career in Libya would come to an abrupt end. The LNA would not necessarily act as a monolithic whole though. Given Haftar's recent tensions with key eastern tribes, such as the Barassa, and other LNA commanders, it should not be ruled out that the LNA could in fact witness a fracturing similar to that occured between hardline and pro-deal Libya Dawn militias. Regardless of these potential developments, fighting continues to mar life in Benghazi and in the countryside around Derna, especially in the Ain Mara region, where LNA troops aligned with Operation Dignity are battling a broad variety of groups, ranging from umbrella groups for local militias, such as the Benghazi Revolutionaries' Shoura Council and the Shoura Council of the Mujahiddeen of Derna and Surroundings, as well as cells of groups who have pledged alliance to the Islamic State.