On 2 January, the Atlantic Council published an analysis article by Emadeddin Badi titled ‘Russia is making a fragile pivot from Syria to Libya. The West should beware falling into a new trap’. Badi argues that for Russia, the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad is ‘not merely a setback but an opportunity to adapt’, with Moscow already shifting its forces and equipment southward in the Mediterranean. This, he writes, signals a strategic recalibration and continuity efforts, with Libyan National Army (LNA) Commander Khalifa Haftar presenting an opportunity to ‘disrupt Western interests, exploit Libya’s fractured politics, and extend Moscow’s influence into Africa. He warns, however, that to counter Moscow effectively, the West must ‘abandon its reactive attempts to ‘peel away’ influential figures from Russia and acknowledge the limits of its influence in a region where it has consistently been outmaneuvered.’
Read the full analysis here.