On 12 December, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published an article by senior fellow Frederic Wehrey, titled ‘Assad’s Downfall Echoes Across the Mediterranean’. The article looks at the ripple effect of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, and how it will impact regional forces and allies in the Mediterranean. Wehrey argues that the fates of Libya and Syria have been intertwined and shaped by similar forces in the decade since the Arab uprisings. Easter commander Khalifa Haftar and his sons, Wehrey explains, will be the most affected by Assad’s downfall, having direct and indirect support from the Assad regime ‘through a common ideology of authoritarian kleptocracy, networks of illicit businesses that enriched the two regimes, and mutual military aid from Russia’. He concludes that these sudden shifts in the regional balance of power could soon lead Libya to relapse into conflict.
Read the full article here.