Throughout last week, there were reports of an imminent Libyan National Army (LNA) “second wave” assault on the capital, with LNA forces allegedly “ready and awaiting” to “storm” the capital within the coming days. On 21 July, the LNA spokesperson, Ahmed al-Mismari, said the LNA had drawn up its final plan to capture Tripoli, involving protecting government institutions and diplomatic missions. In response, the Government of National Accord (GNA) expressed its concern over any escalation of LNA violence in Tripoli and affirmed its readiness to deter and defeat any renewed assault on the capital. The GNA has stated that the new wave of attacks intends to target vital facilities in Tripoli, including Mitiga airport.On 22 July, at 9am local time, the LNA’s second wave was launched. This saw attacks on all fronts, with accompanying air cover and a strong push on Khallit al-Furjan in an attempt to break towards the city centre. On 22 July, Mitiga airport in Tripoli temporarily suspended air traffic after it was attacked by an airstrike. The GNA’s Burkan al-Ghadab (Volcano of Rage) operation claimed to have foiled the attacks and gained “advanced positions in certain frontlines”. At the time of writing, the fighting appears to have abated and the LNA forces claim they have had to delay the offensive due to a communications system breakdown.The LNA’s false start on its “second wave” assault suggests the whole strategy may be predominantly posturing rather than a genuine increase in military activity. By creating fears of an imminent escalation of conflict, the LNA may hope it can reassert its influence and international clout and promote the morale of both the LNA troops and its supporters. Should this week’s attacks represent the full force of the LNA’s renewed campaign, then the frontlines in southern Tripoli are likely to remain relatively static in the short term, though the threat of collateral damage, revenge attacks and massacres is likely to increase as the conflict continues and the stakes rise.
False start to the LNA’s “Second Wave” Attack on Tripoli