With no progress by its (most recent) symbolic deadline of 20 October, UN-mediated talks may be in their death throes. Despite UN envoy Bernardino Leon’s tireless international diplomacy effort, tensions and animosity towards the political process are mounting unabated.EU diplomats are hinting that they may consider asset freezes and travel bans for Libyan hardliners deemed to be deliberately blocking reconciliation efforts, but even if enacted, they wouldn’t take effect until mid November – more than enough time for spoilers to make preparations. Shuttling between Egypt, Algeria, and the UAE and facilitating meetings between others, Leon appears to be making a valiant last-ditch attempt at securing international support, but his successor, German UN official Martin Kobler, has already been named.Regardless of international shuffling, the situation within Libya continues to deteriorate. A helicopter carrying key GNC commanders was downed west of Tripoli under possibly suspicious circumstances, and some GNC hardliners appear to be preparing to launch an attack against HoR-affiliated militias in retaliation. Clashes in anti-GNC Wershefana territory have already broken out, and former allies within the Libya Dawn camp are beginning to turn on each other.Fighting also continued in Eastern Libya in Benghazi – where Haftar’s LNA forces are blockading the ports – and Derna – where IS continues to assert itself. Interestingly, the HoR interim government seems to be pressing ahead with plans to unilaterally take control of oil sales through a newly established NOC and bank account with the Egypt-based Arab Bank. The move could constitute a blow to what remains of the reconciliation efforts by effectively splitting the NOC and Central Bank, the last institutions of unity, not to mention stoking fears that funds in the Egyptian bank account could be funneled towards supporting Haftar’s military activity.In addition to its continued activity in Derna, IS claimed a recent spate of assassinations in Ajdabiya, where tribal alliances could further complicate political or military maneuvering. The persistence of IS has led local analysts to investigate the group’s supply lines, and there are growing indications that supplies originate from vessels on the high seas and are then brought to local ports via trawlers.External forces on top of internal pressures all contribute to the already fraught political and security situations in Libya. If progress towards reconciliation is to be made, commitments need to be more than lip-service, and issues of legitimacy need to be tackled head on. Otherwise, political wounds and their bloody consequences risk festering for years to come.
Libya's Internal Schisms Deepen, External Relationships Could Add Complexity