As Mattia Toaldo has put it "Leon-gate" has essentially ended the international peace process, which is now not only dead but has succeeded in causing all actors in Libya to lose faith that the international community can play a positive role in the country, and reinforcing the view that only violence, manipulation, and subterfuge are likely to succeed, while anyone who behaves altruistically is simply being naive and will get taken advantage of. Toaldo appears a touch over optimistic to me in suggesting that the fallout of Leon-gate might be a Libyan-driven process where local ceasefires can be built upon. I hope for that as well but too many years experience with Libya makes it seem exceedingly unlikely. What the upshot of this episode must be is something I have spoken of for a long long time. Deny sovereignty and deny access to funds of all the actors. And here Mattia and I see eye-to-eye (as we always have done):
The West and the UN, though, should not just be bystanders in this. At this particular moment, they need to make a very important move: make sure that neither side can dispose of Libyan oil to consolidate the de facto partition of the country. The splitting up of the National Oil Company between east and west of Libya would be the prelude to the division of the country. This would hardly bring peace as the borders of the two areas are unclear and the disputed zones happen to be also the most oil-rich. Not recognising parallel economic institutions would be a crucial move by the West to avoid this scenario and create incentives for a national unity deal.In the meantime, Libyans could be faced with the challenge of playing a fair game without a referee. The question is whether the West will make sure that the supporters in the bleachers start to behave.Read the whole article by clicking here.